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Feb 18, 2026
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WATCH
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Amazon snapped a 9-day losing streak that shaved $450B off its market cap following the announcement of a $200B capex plan for 2026 (AI spend). The market initially panicked at the spending scale (4x estimates), but the rebound suggests investors are beginning to digest the necessity of this AI infrastructure build-out. The stock is at a pivot point; execution on this capital deployment is critical. It is a high-stakes bet on AI integration preventing the company from being "put out of business." If the $200B spend does not yield additive revenue or distinct AI advantages, returns on invested capital will crush the stock. |
CNBC
Squawk Pod: Baby Formula, A Tax Hike, & The L...
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Feb 18, 2026
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WATCH
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Netflix (NFLX) is giving Paramount (PARA) a week to negotiate with Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) before pressing its own "better bid" (guaranteed deal, less debt). WBD is the prize in a bidding war between two major players. Netflix is "flooding the zone" to convince shareholders directly, bypassing the board. WBD is in play. The competitive tension between NFLX and PARA suggests a floor or premium for WBD shares, though regulatory hurdles remain a massive question mark. DOJ/Antitrust regulators could block either deal, leaving WBD as a standalone entity with high debt. |
CNBC
Squawk Pod: Baby Formula, A Tax Hike, & The L...
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Feb 18, 2026
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SHORT
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Sorkin visited an AMC theater for a recent movie ("Crime 101") and noted only ~12 people were in the audience. The stock is trading under $2. Despite having "good movies," the theaters remain empty. The business model relies on consistent blockbusters, which are not materializing frequently enough to support the overhead. The fundamental business is broken ("How is this whole place even in business?"). A surprise mega-hit or "meme stock" rally could temporarily squeeze shorts. |
CNBC
Squawk Pod: Baby Formula, A Tax Hike, & The L...
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Feb 13, 2026
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LONG
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Stocks were negative prior to the release but the number was "very tame." Real earnings also rose 0.5%. The absence of an "upside surprise" (which plagued previous Januaries) combined with falling yields reduces the discount rate for equities and supports valuations. A resilient consumer (real earnings up) prevents a recessionary bear case. LONG equities as the "soft landing" probability increases. Economic growth slows significantly (recession) rather than just inflation cooling. |
CNBC
Consumer prices rose 2.4% annually in January...
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Feb 13, 2026
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WATCH
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The goods sector did not show the "pass along" of price increases that were expected from tariffs. If tariff-related inflation is not materializing ("maybe we've been there, done that"), it removes a key inflationary tail risk for the economy. WATCH the goods/commodities complex; continued softness here is bullish for the broader disinflation narrative. Supply chain shocks or delayed tariff impacts. |
CNBC
Consumer prices rose 2.4% annually in January...
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Feb 13, 2026
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LONG
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CPI came in at 2.4% (vs 2.5% consensus) with shelter inflation (OER) surprisingly low at 0.2%. The 10-year yield fell from 4.10% to 4.07% immediately. The data confirms a "tame CPI," removing the fear of sticky inflation. Lower inflation expectations allow the Fed to keep rates lower or cut, which mechanically pushes bond yields down and bond prices up. LONG Treasuries as the macro data supports the "low yield" narrative championed by Treasury officials. Inflation re-accelerates in future months; data revisions. |
CNBC
Consumer prices rose 2.4% annually in January...
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Feb 13, 2026
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LONG
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The 2-year yield dropped to 3.41%. The host explicitly mentioned David Einhorn is "betting on lower short-term rates." The weak CPI print validates the thesis that the Fed will have room to cut rates, which disproportionately benefits short-duration government paper. LONG short-term bonds to align with the smart money (Einhorn) and the immediate deflationary signal. Fed remains hawkish for longer than the market expects. |
CNBC
Consumer prices rose 2.4% annually in January...
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Feb 09, 2026
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LONG
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Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and the Liberal Democratic Party secured a "supermajority" (more than two-thirds of seats) in the snap election. Political stability and a strong mandate allow the government to push through economic policies without gridlock. Markets hate uncertainty; a supermajority removes it. The Nikkei jumped 3.9% to a record high above 56,000 immediately following the victory. The Yen has strengthened ~3.5% YTD against the dollar. Global economic slowdown affecting Japanese exports. |
CNBC
Squawk Pod: Super Bowl ads & GLP-1 competitio...
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Feb 06, 2026
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LONG
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The organic nutrition company is IPOing today, pricing at $18/share (mid-range), implying a ~$720 million valuation. The company positions itself as a "mission-driven" Public Benefit Corporation that is disrupting the baby/kid food aisle. They claim to be profitable on an adjusted EBITDA basis and are expanding distribution beyond premium grocers (Whole Foods) into mass market (Walmart, Kroger) and government assistance programs (WIC). Distribution in 25,000 stores. Top-tier velocity in their category. The company is still losing money on a GAAP basis (though they cite non-cash derivative charges as the cause). The baby food sector is highly competitive with low barriers to entry. |
CNBC
Squawk Pod: Jennifer Garner & Once Upon A Far...
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